It is anticipated that the far right will win Italy's upcoming election, marking the largest political shift in Rome in decades.

On Sunday, Italians will cast ballots in a general election that is expected to produce a government led by a far-right party. This would be a tremendous political upheaval for a nation that is already undergoing persistent economic and political unrest.

Prior to September 9 (when a blackout period commenced), opinion polls showed that a right-wing coalition would win a majority of seats in the parliamentary lower and upper chambers.

The coalition is led by the far-right Fratelli d'Italia of Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy). It comprises three further right-leaning parties: the Lega of Matteo Salvini, Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi, and the Noi Moderati, a lesser coalition member.

The Brothers of Italy party stands out and is expected to earn the most votes for a single party. According to the poll aggregator Politiche 2022, it has received roughly 25% of the vote, significantly surpassing its closest right-wing ally, Lega, which is anticipated to garner approximately 12% of the vote.

The Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, is anticipated to receive approximately 21% of the vote on the center-left. In contrast, its coalition allies (the Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment) are anticipated to earn single-digit representation.

In July, Mario Draghi resigned as prime minister because he was unable to unite a broken political coalition behind his economic proposals. The rapid election is a consequence.

Who constitutes the "Brotherhood of Italy?"

Giorgia Meloni, the head of Fratelli d'Italia, could become Italy's first female prime minister if her party wins the election. She would also be the first leader of the far right in Italy since Benito Mussolini a century ago.

Carlo Ciccioli, head of Fratelli d'Italia in the eastern Italian province of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party's astronomical popularity had "spread to the rest of Italy" and that it was now ready to reign.

"At the moment, we are likely the largest party in the country; however, this will not be confirmed until Sunday's election, not by polls. Why do I think Fratelli d'Italia will be successful? Since our leadership is substantive. Jouma Bercetche stated that Giorgia Meloni is well-versed in both culture and politics.

Fratelli d'Italia was founded in 2012, but it has its roots in Italy's neo-fascist movement of the 20th century, which formed after Mussolini's death in 1945.

A group of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (or PdL) party, including Giorgia Meloni, created Fratelli d'Italia. It derives its name from the first lines of the Italian national anthem.

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Since then, the party's popularity has grown and overtaken that of the populist Lega party. It has resonated with those concerned about immigration (Italy being the destination of many migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean), Italy's relationship with the EU, and the economy.

According to analysts, the party's decision not to participate in Draghi's recent broad-based alliance has contributed to its popularity.

According to a recent statement by the co-president of a risk consultancy, Wolfango Piccoli, this distinguished Meloni "as an outsider within the political system and as the sole opposition figure."

Origins and methods

Fratelli d'Italia has been commonly labeled "neo-fascist" or "post-fascist" due to its views, which echo the nationalist, nativist, and anti-immigration stance of Italy's fascist era.

Meloni, for her part, claims to have purged the party of fascist members, declaring in the summer that Italy's right-wing had "relegated fascism to the trash heap of history"

Meloni claimed in 2019 that she intends to safeguard "God, nation, and family."

Fratelli d'Italia no longer opposes the euro in Europe, but favors EU reform to make it less bureaucratic and less influential in domestic politics. Its strategy is encapsulated in one of its slogans: "A Europe that does less, but does it better."

On the economic front, it has yielded to the centre-right coalition's position that the future administration should decrease sales taxes on some commodities in order to alleviate the cost of living issue, and it has declared that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.

Fratelli d'Italia has been pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, and pro-sanctions against Russia, whilst the Lega has been ambivalent about these measures.

However, the party has also maintained cordial relations with one of the EU's most notable foes, Hungary's President Viktor Orban, supporting the autocratic leader following a European Parliament judgment that Hungary could no longer be called a democracy.

Left-of-center politicians are concerned that a government led by Meloni could affect relations with the rest of Europe. The Democratic Party leader, Enrico Letta, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy had two options in Europe: remaining in the top tier of economies and governance, or being "relegated.

The primary alternative is to maintain our position in the "first division." The first section refers to Brussels as well as Germany, France, and Spain, the key European states and founders along with ourselves.

The second choice is to be demoted to the second division with Poland and Hungary, remaining with them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid,' he said at an economic event hosted by Ambrosetti in early September.

He stated, "I feel that selecting the second division would be devastating for Italy."

Multiple experts have labeled Meloni a political chameleon due to her fluctuating political opinions over time.

Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo commented in a September note, "There is a doubt as to whether Meloni will lead the government: the one who praised Hungary's Viktor Orban or the one who supported Mario Draghi's anti-Russia stance?"

"The sovereigntist who advocated for Italy's departure from the euro or the reassuring leader who took a more traditional position toward Europe during the campaign?"

The populist who demanded a naval blockade in the Mediterranean to stop the illegal influx of immigrants... or the more responsible conservative who favored a European solution?" he asked.

Being Italy (a country that has notoriously had 69 administrations since World War II), considerable instability and volatility are predicted in the wake of the election, not least due to the likelihood of differences among the right-wing alliance's FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia.

"Salvini and Berlusconi will challenge coalition allies, attempting to regain prominence after a (potential) electoral loss by emphasizing policy differences such as fiscal austerity, pensions, and Russia sanctions.

"Shortly after the election, policy conflicts and personal rivalries will emerge, causing chaos and diminishing the effectiveness of the new government," Piccoli said.